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Are we doomed?

Are we doomed?

H

hgpne

Joined
Sep 2, 2026
Messages
17
The win yesterday, and a couple of posts I've seen about the maths of getting to the "magical 50 point mark" got me thinking about what do we actually need to do to survive, so I thought I would take a look at what has been required for Championship survival since we got promoted in 2015, and what that would mean for what we need from here (taking bottom relegated side's points total plus 1pt)

15/16 - 41
16/17 - 52 (technically Forest stayed up ahead of Rovers on GD with both on 51)
17/18 - 42
18/19 - 41
19/20 - 49
20/21 - 44
21/22 - 38
22/23 - 45
23/24 - 51
24/25 - 50 (technically Hull stayed up ahead of Luton on GD with both on 49)
25/26 - 48 (although Leicester were relegated on 46 with a 6 point deduction, so barring deductions you'd have needed 52)

This averages to 45.5 (45.9 without the Leicester deduction), so call it a round 46. To get up to a point a game, we will need 38 from our remaining 31 so roughly 10 wins 8 draws 13 losses, which doesn't seem completely insurmountable?

Having said that, the last 3 years have all been 50+ , so 42 from our remaining 31, which does feel a bit more of a tough ask.

So, are we doomed?
 
Re-visit in January is my bet and also my logical thought process.

Yesterday showed everyone that we can compete this season.

Watford (a) and QPR (a) still rankle as those 5 dropped points currently hamper ourselves.

We have a fighting chance. Unity between Fans, Manager and Players will be key.
 
Still a huge ask. Need 14 more wins just to get to 50 points....

Need 4 wins before Xmas/New year at least. Portsmouth and Boro at home is a big double header I think. Usually beat Pompey at home and also do pretty well against Boro season in season out. Interesting they haven't scored in last two with Lankshear injured so that gives an indication his quality has elevated them and the rest of their side is manageable.

Derby at home on Boxing Day is also huge but I look at all the other fixtures and majority of them will be defeats with the odd draw I suspect.
 
Key for me is ensuring we aren't cut adrift come December/January.

Yesterday was brilliant and showed we still can fight and compete. However, we played well against West Brom and followed that up with disasters against Stoke and Sheff Utd.
Stating the bleeding obvious but we really need to follow up and build on yesterday's win - easier said than done considering we've got West Ham next though.

Still praying for a miracle!
 
Jack Daniels said:
Re-visit in January is my bet and also my logical thought process.

Yesterday showed everyone that we can compete this season.

Watford (a) and QPR (a) still rankle as those 5 dropped points currently hamper ourselves.

We have a fighting chance. Unity between Fans, Manager and Players will be key.
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Same!
Plus how we lost to Bristol and Lincoln who were shitter than us on the day is almost equally as annoying.
 
Yes we can survive. It requires initially the current squad showing the fight and determination they did yesterday in every minute of every match up to the opening of the January window so that we can with any luck shrink the gap to safety which at the least means just a low single figure number of points to 21st place. It will then require us to bring in two or maybe three new players with immediate effect - a mobile defender, a targetman striker who can lead the line by himself if required as well as forming a partnership with another striker and maybe a further striker.

That will obviously require us to shed a corresponding number of players from the current squad - my suggestions might be Valentin and after hugely meritorious service Potts from our own contracted players, after yesterday Lindsay suddenly looks useful again, and from the loanees if it is possible to return them Gibbs and Burgzorg. Remember we still have to play both matches against over half the division and the return fixtures for that dismal set of defeats so far. The season is on a knife edge but for the first time we have the energising effect of a genuinely momentous win. Let's see what that leads to.
 
SoccerHQ said:
Still a huge ask. Need 14 more wins just to get to 50 points....

Need 4 wins before Xmas/New year at least. Portsmouth and Boro at home is a big double header I think. Usually beat Pompey at home and also do pretty well against Boro season in season out. Interesting they haven't scored in last two with Lankshear injured so that gives an indication his quality has elevated them and the rest of their side is manageable.

Derby at home on Boxing Day is also huge but I look at all the other fixtures and majority of them will be defeats with the odd draw I suspect.
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Hopefully more positivity in terms of attitude and results will prevail. Don’t dispute we have a tough task on our hands. Belief is an important ingredient.
 
2/3 wins on the bounce as Norwich has proved can turn things completely around. Far too early to say we cant get out of this situation.

Positive results against the teams around us will be vital.

It’s important to remember other teams will get sucked in to this fight and hopefully we will be a little bit more battle hardened, and little bit more accustomed to the must win pressure.

We can definitely get out of this.
 
Charlton winning against Sheffield United wasn't ideal. They're one of the teams that will be in the scrap come the end of the season.

Unless we do manage a really good run at some point, we'll probably be needing a pretty low points total for the relegated sides for us to survive.
 
Assessing come January seems sensible. We've got 9 games between now and the new year. We absolutely have to be closer to a point a game come then than we are now to have any chance, ideally no fewer than 12 points.

That means 3-4 wins out of

West Ham A
Cardiff A
Norwich H
Burnley A
Portsmouth H
Middlesbrough H
Swansea A
Derby H
West Brom A

I don't think we can realistically expect anything out of the West Ham game, but we need to see a performance to give some hope there because we've looked appalling under GA away from home so far.

Cardiff and Burnley both feel like "must not lose" games, with Derby and Portsmouth ones you really have to go and win to have any shot. The other home games we need to be picking points, with Swansea and West Brom both places we have historically struggled.
 
Hodgeheg 2.0 said:
After yesterday, it's a shame West Ham are next up who, at home will be right up for it after their own recent run of form.
There isn't another team in the division by the way who I'd get more satisfaction from beating.
Horrible fans.
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I also think it’s a shame that it’s two weeks away rather than next week. Gives their new manager more time to sort them out and not as easy for us to retain the ‘high’ from yesterday’s performance and result.
 
No Danger said:
Hopefully more positivity in terms of attitude and results will prevail. Don’t dispute we have a tough task on our hands. Belief is an important ingredient.
Click to expand...

Last six games of the season are very interesting if there's still a realistic chance of staying up:

Watford home
Plastics away
Charlton home
Bristol City away
Pompey away
Cardiff home

Most of those won't be safe from relegation when playing them I bet.
 
Jack Daniels said:
Re-visit in January is my bet and also my logical thought process.

Yesterday showed everyone that we can compete this season.

Watford (a) and QPR (a) still rankle as those 5 dropped points currently hamper ourselves.

We have a fighting chance. Unity between Fans, Manager and Players will be key.
Click to expand...
Definitely a fighting chance - still think it is going to be tough to stay up, but if we go down with a bit of fight, the chances of bouncing back are better than if we slide down like a wet fart - like last time.
 
7 points of Lincoln . Think we need to just concentrate on that for now . There’s still a lot of games to be played .
They have shown yesterday that they do care and have heart . Keep that mentality and fight and that’s all that we can hope for .
 
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