totally agree with you and disagree with the next 2 posters.. there is no rolling about and is clearly holding his face which indicates an arm or shoulder caught him there.
Had it been one of ours - ie Davis on Woods on weds night - we would have wanted a red !
If Bailey being down is genuine then im shocked at how much of a pussy Bailey is. He was hardly touched, he felt contact, went down , held his face when the video look like it was his chest. He's conned the ref IMHO.