Is Lowe evolving?

[HunterLionheart]

19th place Plymouth? Great.

The whole point is that we're looking at the quality of play rather than the results in a vacuum. We've been crap. I'd argue that we've only been clearly the better team once all season (Stoke), despite the run of early wins. That catches up to you- you don't stay lucky forever and we're seeing that now.

Hand on heart, do you think we'll finish ahead of Plymouth this season? Cause right now, I certainly don't.

 

[Warton PNE]

Course we did. Even so, there's still only Ipswich and Cardiff above us off your xG list.

It's blown my mind how miserable some of our fans are about our start to the season, we really haven't been that bad at all. Too many people trying to compare PNE games to whatever top Premier/Champion's League games they've been watching.

Here it is. The classic 'you're so negative', 'why are you so miserable' etc etc shouts.

When we were winning, I was delighted (if you're that bothered, I'm sure you can go back and look at my comments on the forum threads after wins). However, I knew that the luck would run out at some point, and it was only a matter of time.

That's not being negative, that is being realistic. You've mentioned Plymouth, I wouldn't be 100% sure we'll even finish above them. The football is absolutely tedious and horrible to watch.

No idea what you even mean by that last point? Are we not allowed to complain that our football is League 2 standard because we don't play in the Premier League? I have no idea what you mean by that.

 

[jumping mouse]

Lowe will have evolved when he finds away to win with the personnel at his disposal.

As it stands, it feels like Lowe hasn't accepted we are a low possession team? Or he doesn't know how to deal with it?

Luckily Arsene Wenger and Jurgen Klinsman do (in this article):

The soccer argument for playing without the ball: how teams like Morocco, AC Milan and OL Reign are getting wins

The World Cup showed us that possession didn't help you win games, and we're seeing it in the club game. How does it work, and who does it best?

www.espn.co.uk

Using the World Cup for inspiration, and particularly Morocco, this is what a successful low possession team needs:

Defensive Solidity
One of the key aspects for teams that don't dominate possession is having a strong defensive setup. This often involves playing with a low defensive line and ensuring that players are well-organised to close down spaces. A compact formation makes it hard for the opposing team to find gaps and create scoring opportunities. Saudi Arabia and Japan's successes against possession-heavy teams like Argentina and Germany support the idea that a strong defensive setup can lead to wins.

Quick Transitions (Take note Ben Whiteman.)
If Lowe wants to evolve, perhaps he should staple these two words to players' foreheads? When low possession teams win the ball back, they look to transition from defence to attack as quickly as possible. Speed is of the essence here. Quick and precise passes, often aimed at pacey forwards, can catch the opposition off-guard and lead to goal-scoring opportunities.

What they don't do is pass it around at the back for a bit while everybody has a moment and gets their breath back. Morocco's success with low possession but higher xG suggests that quick transitions can be highly effective. This aligns with Croatia manager Zlatko Dalic's comment that "the future lies in the speed of counterattacks and fast transitions."

Win it. Use it.

Efficient Finishing
Everyone wants this, of course. But, when you have fewer chances, being clinical in front of goal is paramount. Strikers and attacking players need to make the most of the few opportunities they get. High-quality finishing skills can often compensate for a lack of possession. The upsets pulled by Japan and Saudi Arabia show the importance of being clinical. Japan and Saudi Arabia had fewer opportunities but made them count. Sounds like us at the start of the season.

Tactical Flexibility
Having a variety of tactical options up your sleeve can also be beneficial. Being able to switch from a defensive posture to a more attacking setup can confuse the opposition and create new challenges for them to deal with. Morocco's varied possession stats and superior xG in games suggest that being tactically flexible can be highly beneficial.

Game management and set pieces also important. As they ever were.

 

[Meldrew's Ghost]

A very quickly knocked together table to show our finishing positions vs xG positions

Season	Finishing Position	xG Position
22/23	12th	17th
21/22	13th	14th
20/21	13th	18th
19/20	9th	6th
18/19	14th	16th
17/18	7th	13th
16/17	11th	13th

So the only season our xG position was higher than our finishing position was in 2019/20. That might be because of a combination of a higher number of penalties won in that season, and the crap strikers we had.

DJ finished top scorer in 2019/20 with 12 league goals (6 pens); Barky came second with 9; and Gally came 3rd with 6 (4 pens plus 1 from a rebound after he'd had a pen saved).

 

[Libertine]

So the only season our xG position was higher than our finishing position was in 2019/20. That might be because of a combination of a higher number of penalties won in that season, and the crap strikers we had.

DJ finished top scorer in 2019/20 with 12 league goals (6 pens); Barky came second with 9; and Gally came 3rd with 6 (4 pens plus 1 from a rebound after he'd had a pen saved).

And Covid of course. I'm just following the science here.

 

[SF]

So the only season our xG position was higher than our finishing position was in 2019/20. That might be because of a combination of a higher number of penalties won in that season, and the crap strikers we had.

DJ finished top scorer in 2019/20 with 12 league goals (6 pens); Barky came second with 9; and Gally came 3rd with 6 (4 pens plus 1 from a rebound after he'd had a pen saved).

What is it with our short-lived, weird, flukey runs, i'd forgotten about that spell when we got a penalty every week.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Eh? We only need to compare ourselves to half the Championship teams who have played against us- sure, we expect Southampton and Leicester to be full of classier players with their prem squads, but Plymouth, West Brom, Ipswich? All play a much nicer brand of football at a Championship budget.

The same West Brom absolutely littered with talent? Swift, Diangana, Asante and Phillips to name 4, I'd love any on them here.

Ipswich are an enigma because of the coach.

19th position Plymouth who didn't have a better other xG stat that Rodney Brewers mentioned before.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

The whole point is that we're looking at the quality of play rather than the results in a vacuum. We've been crap. I'd argue that we've only been clearly the better team once all season (Stoke), despite the run of early wins. That catches up to you- you don't stay lucky forever and we're seeing that now.

Hand on heart, do you think we'll finish ahead of Plymouth this season? Cause right now, I certainly don't.

Jesus that is a pessimistic view.

We were better than Plymouth, Bristol City, Sheffield Wednesday, Rotherham and Southampton.

 

[Libertine]

Just shows how fickle the life of a manager is looking at the latest percentages at the top of this thread.
No one really cares about how the team are playing if you're winning and up there in the table. Then you go on a run like we have and the knives are out.
For the record for me

West Brom, We were awful.
Leicester. Decent for 60 minutes, perfectly good goal disallowed.
Ipswich. Gash.
Millwall. Should have had a penalty.
Southampton. Should have had a penalty and hit with a total sucker punch at the end.
Hull. Should have had a penalty.

If those dodgy decisions go our way, 4 out of those 6 games could end very differently and we are still in the play offs.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Just shows how fickle the life of a manager is looking at the latest percentages at the top of this thread.
No one really cares about how the team are playing if you're winning and up there in the table. Then you go on a run like we have and the knives are out.
For the record for me

West Brom, We were awful.
Leicester. Decent for 60 minutes, perfectly good goal disallowed.
Ipswich. Gash.
Millwall. Should have had a penalty.
Southampton. Should have had a penalty and hit with a total sucker punch at the end.
Hull. Should have had a penalty.

If those dodgy decisions go our way, 4 out of those 6 games could end very differently and we are still in the play offs.

But the xG is poor.

 

[Libertine]

But the xG is poor.

I understand that people did point that out even when we were top of the league. But the majority who were voting on this thread didn't care. All about those results.

Early pages of this thread make for interesting reading as well.

 

[Liberation]

XG should be removed from the English language...... It's the biggest load of utter football tripe in existence... followed closely by " possession " which is also complete bollocks. Neither mean a bloody thing.. imho.

 

[simo]

Lowe will have evolved when he finds away to win with the personnel at his disposal.

As it stands, it feels like Lowe hasn't accepted we are a low possession team? Or he doesn't know how to deal with it?

Luckily Arsene Wenger and Jurgen Klinsman do (in this article):

The soccer argument for playing without the ball: how teams like Morocco, AC Milan and OL Reign are getting wins

The World Cup showed us that possession didn't help you win games, and we're seeing it in the club game. How does it work, and who does it best?

www.espn.co.uk

Using the World Cup for inspiration, and particularly Morocco, this is what a successful low possession team needs:

Defensive Solidity
One of the key aspects for teams that don't dominate possession is having a strong defensive setup. This often involves playing with a low defensive line and ensuring that players are well-organised to close down spaces. A compact formation makes it hard for the opposing team to find gaps and create scoring opportunities. Saudi Arabia and Japan's successes against possession-heavy teams like Argentina and Germany support the idea that a strong defensive setup can lead to wins.

Quick Transitions (Take note Ben Whiteman.)
If Lowe wants to evolve, perhaps he should staple these two words to players' foreheads? When low possession teams win the ball back, they look to transition from defence to attack as quickly as possible. Speed is of the essence here. Quick and precise passes, often aimed at pacey forwards, can catch the opposition off-guard and lead to goal-scoring opportunities.

What they don't do is pass it around at the back for a bit while everybody has a moment and gets their breath back. Morocco's success with low possession but higher xG suggests that quick transitions can be highly effective. This aligns with Croatia manager Zlatko Dalic's comment that "the future lies in the speed of counterattacks and fast transitions."

Win it. Use it.

Efficient Finishing
Everyone wants this, of course. But, when you have fewer chances, being clinical in front of goal is paramount. Strikers and attacking players need to make the most of the few opportunities they get. High-quality finishing skills can often compensate for a lack of possession. The upsets pulled by Japan and Saudi Arabia show the importance of being clinical. Japan and Saudi Arabia had fewer opportunities but made them count. Sounds like us at the start of the season.

Tactical Flexibility
Having a variety of tactical options up your sleeve can also be beneficial. Being able to switch from a defensive posture to a more attacking setup can confuse the opposition and create new challenges for them to deal with. Morocco's varied possession stats and superior xG in games suggest that being tactically flexible can be highly beneficial.

Game management and set pieces also important. As they ever were.

Or, in old money, playing on the break.

 

[JG1888]

Christ. Tough read.

 

[Euxtonboy]

The same West Brom absolutely littered with talent? Swift, Diangana, Asante and Phillips to name 4, I'd love any on them here.

Ipswich are an enigma because of the coach.

19th position Plymouth who didn't have a better other xG stat that Rodney Brewers mentioned before.

I am not at all surprised by Ipswich. They gave notice of what was to come in the friendly

The same West Brom absolutely littered with talent? Swift, Diangana, Asante and Phillips to name 4, I'd love any on them here.

Ipswich are an enigma because of the coach.

19th position Plymouth who didn't have a better other xG stat that Rodney Brewers mentioned before.

 

[Mr. M]

Ipswich have had a good start - can they sustain it? They will have a sticky patch at some point and teams will eventually come up with ways of countering this. I'm sure analysts are all over those videotapes looking at weaknesses to exploit. Do we have any tactical help for Ryan and his mob of scousers?

 

[Bobbage]

No idea what you even mean by that last point? Are we not allowed to complain that our football is League 2 standard because we don't play in the Premier League? I have no idea what you mean by that.

Is it bollocks League Two standard.

You're better than that.

 

[IanBogie9]

Is Lowe evolving? No he's regressing.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Is it bollocks League Two standard.

You're better than that.

It was an outrageous comment.

 

[LostinSpace]

What is it with our short-lived, weird, flukey runs, i'd forgotten about that spell when we got a penalty every week.

I don’t think we have more or less fluky runs than other clubs. Over the whole season, our position will be more or less right and just like we shouldn’t have drawn any conclusions from our first 7 games, we shouldn’t draw any from the last 7 either.