I’m a SWFC fan and as I usually do when we have a match, I take a look at how the opposing fans are feeling about things.
Hopefully, I’m not breaking any rules by posting this thread and it’ll be taken in the spirit it’s intended.
I’ve not felt the desire to open an account on another teams forum for many years, but the opinions I’ve read on here are so far removed from what I expected that I felt compelled.
According to the poll on this forum, nearly 80% of you think Lowe should be sacked - which massively surprised me.
Looking at it from the outside, it seems he is exceeding or at the very least meeting what should be expected.
You’ve got the 18th largest average attendance in the division. You are only averaging a few hundred more than QPR, Plymouth, Millwall and Swansea - all of whom have considerably less away fans through the door than you. Therefore, in terms of home supporter base, you are currently 22nd in the division, only ahead of Blackburn and Rotherham.
Every single one of the six teams with smaller averages is below you in the league table.
You don’t have a rich benefactor, so it is reasonable to assume that the teams above you in the league average attendance all have bigger budgets than you. Especially, since most of those teams are backed by wealthy owners and many have parachute payments.
This is backed up by your latest accounts (for 2022) which show your wage bill to be under £22m, comparatively small in the division. However, when you take into account of player amortisation, you are running at an operating loss of circa £20m. Obviously, for FFP purposes, some of these losses wouldn’t count towards the permitted losses of £39m over three seasons. However, maybe I was wrong when earlier I said you didn’t have a rich benefactor as it appears your owners must be basically losing very close to the permitted FFP amount every year.
The reason you can’t spend more is your modest turnover of £13.8m. For comparable purposes, Sheffield Wednesday had turnover of £16.3m in League One, therefore in The Championship their turnover is likely to be £10m higher than yours with the extra solidarity and TV payments.
Not only are your crowds small for the division, but the ticket prices you pay are also far below average. This can be evidenced by even a club like Luton (in 2022 so the year before they got promoted), had turnover of £17.7m.
Blackburn are one of the two clubs getting lower home support in numbers than you, but their turnover was £16.6m in 2022 - over 20% higher than yours.
I look at the teams immediately above you in the table and then compare their 2022 revenue figures and those of Sunderland, Bristol City, Boro’s and Watfords (due to parachute payments) dwarf yours.
Therefore, I’m struggling to see who is above you that you realistically think you should be above?
I then look at the teams below you. Coventry City had a turnover of £18m in 2022 and spent a fortune this Summer. Norwich have parachute payments, Stoke, Birmingham and Wednesday have far bigger budgets. Therefore, it appears lots of clubs would expect to be above you but aren’t.
Certainly in terms of budgets, Lowe has you punching well above your weight.
Then I’ve seen various comments that other clubs without big budgets have managed to get promotion to the PL. But unless I’m missing one, I don’t think a club with as smaller budget as yours has managed it for very many years!
Luton are perhaps the closest but I showed above that their revenue was still 30% higher than yours in 2022.
Bournemouth and Brentford are definitely historically smaller clubs but they had owners that backed them heavily and at the right time. There’s no way Bournemouth would get away nowadays (under heavier FFP legislation) with the losses they originally incurred to get into the EPL for the first time. Once they were in they then got locked into the parachute payment merry go round.
Brentford’s model allowed them to make huge profits on player sales (something no other club has managed to successfully replicate) but even then their turnover from day to day activities was £15.2m back in 18/19.
Therefore, and I guess in summary, to an outsider like me it appears that you are punching well above your weight.
You don’t get enough fans through the gate to achieve any more. And the fans you do get, don’t pay enough for your tickets. You would buck every trend going, if you managed to get to the PL and you are currently achieving pretty much the ceiling of what can reasonably be expected.
Your owner appears to be chucking in cash to the limit of what is permitted under FFP rules.
I totally accept that this post probably my won’t make me popular. But come on guys, what am I missing? It appears that your budget should probably make you are club that yo-yo’s between League One and The Championship but you are an established Championship club that is never in the conversations about relegation.
At the moment you just look like Charlton fans did whinging about coming mid table in the PL every year.
