Outside View

[jonjonpne]

Is this GallyNuge with an alt account? Started by saying they are a Sheff Weds fan, but then later refers to Sheff Weds as "their". I'd always refer to PNE as us or we.

Ha ha well spotted

 

[Michael]

You are overachieving currently though - so I don’t understand your anger.

We're only overachieving against off the field factors though. On the pitch we have picked up 16 points from 18 games. In what world is that overachieving?!

 

[Preston1880]

This is 100% that "GallyNuge" weirdo.

 

[AssemblyAtWembley]

I really can't believe your basing pretty much the entirety of your argument on revenue.
Is this really what it's come to in the mindsets of fans like yourself?
You just sound like a lazy freelance journalist from the outside lookin in to me.
Basing everything on revenue an crowd attendances without seeing the bigger picture.
It's a lazy effort from you at best

They’re inextricably linked.

The ‘big 6’ usually come in the top 6 - at the very least the top 8.

Norwich are the lowest club with parachute payments at 13th. Three of the top 4 have parachute payments.

Wednesday and Stoke are the only clubs struggling at the bottom that have a budget that shouldn’t leave them bottom 8.

Preston are the only team in the top half with a bottom 8 budget.

 

[AssemblyAtWembley]

We're only overachieving against off the field factors though. On the pitch we have picked up 16 points from 18 games. In what world is that overachieving?!

You are 11th.

You likely have the 22nd biggest budget. Above Rotherham and Plymouth.

I’d call that overachieving.

 

[Naughton's moustache]

Revenue, and more pertinently, money spent should give you a general guide on where you should be expecting to finish, though it's clearly not the be all and end all. And expectations are not the same as what's possible.

Question is, what do you think are the expectations given to the manager when he signs a contract to work here? If you think it's 'finish top 6', I think you'll be sorely disappointed.

I think the club expectations of the manager are to finish mid table, despite the constant drivel they come out with.
Does that make me change my expectations?
Should it make me change my expectations because of how many fans we get through the door? I'm referring to our Sheffield friend here of course.
He'll be disappointed if he thinks it should.
We've seen who's made it there.
Clubs similar to ourselves or smaller.
Much smaller.

 

[Naughton's moustache]

They’re inextricably linked.

The ‘big 6’ usually come in the top 6 - at the very least the top 8.

Norwich are the lowest club with parachute payments at 13th. Three of the top 4 have parachute payments.

Wednesday and Stoke are the only clubs struggling at the bottom that have a budget that shouldn’t leave them bottom 8.

Preston are the only team in the top half with a bottom 8 budget.

I don't care about budgets!!!!!
Can you not tell yet?!
Over achieving or over achieved are words that you clearly like to use frequently.
I tend to not use them, well infact I don't use them.
In the past 12 months, we've seen 2 shall we say unfashionable clubs make the top 6. One of them even got promoted!
Yet in the last month or so, we've had a guy from Liecester an now yourself telling us what are expectations should be.
Incredible!

 

[Naughton's moustache]

You are 11th.

You likely have the 22nd biggest budget. Above Rotherham and Plymouth.

I’d call that overachieving.

I'd call that stagnating

 

[lilywhitetel]

Yet another post from a fan of a 'superior' club saying how little Preston should be happy with our lot. Ignore

 

[noelpne]

I’m a SWFC fan and as I usually do when we have a match, I take a look at how the opposing fans are feeling about things.

Hopefully, I’m not breaking any rules by posting this thread and it’ll be taken in the spirit it’s intended.

What, a spirit of offering positive advice ?
Or just a slagging-off that you do to all the other 23 Clubs you compete against?

I’ve not felt the desire to open an account on another teams forum for many years, but the opinions I’ve read on here are so far removed from what I expected that I felt compelled.

What exactly did you expect ?
You don't say.

According to the poll on this forum, nearly 80% of you think Lowe should be sacked - which massively surprised me.

Look at the form table over the last THREE months might give you a clue
An even bigger clue would be your opinion formed after watching all those Clubs, actually at a football ground.

Looking at it from the outside, it seems he is exceeding or at the very least meeting what should be expected.

What should be expected by ...whom ?
A fan of another Club in the same League?

You’ve got the 18th largest average attendance in the division. You are only averaging a few hundred more than QPR, Plymouth, Millwall and Swansea - all of whom have considerably less away fans through the door than you. Therefore, in terms of home supporter base, you are currently 22nd in the division, only ahead of Blackburn and Rotherham.

That's always been the case , and what's that got to do with the relative success of Clubs like Luton, or Burnley, or Bournemouth, or EVEN the relative failure, ( yes, SWFC could bounce-back to L1 ) - of a Big City Club like, er, SWFC ?

Every single one of the six teams with smaller averages is below you in the league table.

You don’t have a rich benefactor,

We USED to have an EXTREMELY WEALTHY benefactor actually, who put a - relatively - LOW amount of investment into PNE to keep the Club from getting relegated . He died . Now I believe it's a consortium of his family. Being rich / rich family ownership does not automatically mean the same as being generous to the F.C. they own.

so it is reasonable to assume that the teams above you in the league average attendance all have bigger budgets than you.

That's purely an accountants p .o .v.
As such it's a blinkered, narrow one.

Especially, since most of those teams are backed by wealthy owners and many have parachute payments.

These should be scrapped imo.
Perhaps that issue deserves it's own thread.

This is backed up by your latest accounts (for 2022) which show your wage bill to be under £22m, comparatively small in the division. However, when you take into account of player amortisation, you are running at an operating loss of circa £20m. Obviously, for FFP purposes, some of these losses wouldn’t count towards the permitted losses of £39m over three seasons.

You are an accountant, aren't you ?
Imo the whole profession has too much sway of very many Companies affairs in many ways and since the era of Rupert Murdoch has much too much influence on how many sports are run, to the detriment of the pockets of many spoets fans and created Elitist and frankly selfish attitudes amongst many of Sports administrations & governing bodies.

However, maybe I was wrong when earlier I said you didn’t have a rich benefactor as it appears your owners must be basically losing very close to the permitted FFP amount every year.

The reason you can’t spend more is your modest turnover of £13.8m. For comparable purposes, Sheffield Wednesday had turnover of £16.3m in League One, therefore in The Championship their turnover is likely to be £10m higher than yours with the extra solidarity and TV payments.

Not only are your crowds small for the division, but the ticket prices you pay are also far below average. This can be evidenced by even a club like Luton (in 2022 so the year before they got promoted), had turnover of £17.7m.

Blackburn are one of the two clubs getting lower home support in numbers than you, but their turnover was £16.6m in 2022 - over 20% higher than yours.

I look at the teams immediately above you in the table and then compare their 2022 revenue figures and those of Sunderland, Bristol City, Boro’s and Watfords (due to parachute payments) dwarf yours.

Therefore, I’m struggling to see who is above you that you realistically think you should be above?

Yes, definitely an accountant.

I then look at the teams below you. Coventry City had a turnover of £18m in 2022 and spent a fortune this Summer. Norwich have parachute payments, Stoke, Birmingham and Wednesday have far bigger budgets. Therefore, it appears lots of clubs would expect to be above you but aren’t.

That's the beauty of sport. It still produces 'upsets' that are totally in odds with accountants who could be forgiven for expecting Man.United to be P.L. Champs. each & every Year. However they are partially vindicated by Pep Guardiola & his Squad.

Certainly in terms of budgets, Lowe has you punching well above your weight.

That's what the Chairman & indeed , his predessessor say every season. It justifies his employer's levels of generosity .

I don't know what excuses your Chairman /men had to give your fans as excuses for your level of success ? Especially in relation to the Club across YOUR city from YOUR Crumbling Stadium ( which once held Group Stages of the '66 W.C. + Semi-Finals of FA Cup )

Then I’ve seen various comments that other clubs without big budgets have managed to get promotion to the PL. But unless I’m missing one, I don’t think a club with as smaller budget as yours has managed it for very many years!

So Luton must have a more generous benefactor then (I don't know- please confirm) This wouldn't be a suprise, but it also takes good management to get the best out of a middling-set of players.

Luton are perhaps the closest but I showed above that their revenue was still 30% higher than yours in 2022.

I'm sure. You could quote Bournemouth too.
Over the years, probably Brighton.

Bournemouth and Brentford are definitely historically smaller clubs but they had owners that backed them heavily and at the right time. There’s no way Bournemouth would get away nowadays (under heavier FFP legislation) with the losses they originally incurred to get into the EPL for the first time. Once they were in they then got locked into the parachute payment merry go round.

These should be scrapped. A discussion to be held- elsewhere imo.

Brentford’s model allowed them to make huge profits on player sales (something no other club has managed to successfully replicate) but even then their turnover from day to day activities was £15.2m back in 18/19.

(With COVID that's really only 3 seasons ago)
It used to be Newcastle's too, under Mike Ashley. Brentford are a very good model & they have had to focus almost all their 'off-pitch' efforts into the scouting /recruitment side. Other Clubs could emulate them, but I don't believe very many more could duplicate their system with the same levels of success. I also don't know how long from day 1 they:ve gone down this path...I'd suggest it's about a what, top of my head- a decade ?

Therefore, and I guess in summary, to an outsider like me it appears that you are punching well above your weight.

If you knew how long PNE fans like many (maybe most) on here have realised that , like many, many Farmers; - the owners have "Short Hands yet Deep Pockets"......then you wouldn't need to tell your Grandmother how to suck eggs.

You don’t get enough fans through the gate to achieve any more. And the fans you do get, don’t pay enough for your tickets. You would buck every trend going, if you managed to get to the PL and you are currently achieving pretty much the ceiling of what can reasonably be expected.

Your owner appears to be chucking in cash to the limit of what is permitted under FFP rules.

Yep, we've probably missed-out again. FFP has been crudely thought out and pathetically applied.

I totally accept that this post probably my won’t make me popular. But come on guys, what am I missing? It appears that your budget should probably make you are club that yo-yo’s between League One and The Championship but you are an established Championship club that is never in the conversations about relegation.

It only takes one bad long run to put a Club in the poo.
It only takes one good long run to put a Club in the P. O. 's.

At the moment you just look like Charlton fans did whinging about coming mid table in the PL every year.

Where's Curbishley now? Putting his feet up, probably.

 

[jonjonpne]

I wouldn't call our football mediocre I think it's even worse than that. Our patterns of play show nil imagination and show fitness and general training to be very poor. The defeat against a terrible sheff weds told me a lot. Lowes is inept tactically and technically. And by the way I have badges by the way😏

 

[jumping mouse]

I think this is an excellent perspective. The start to our season has raised expectations. This was with a decimated squad. We now have a fully fit squad. But, the last two months has presented a feast of over-cautious game plans, overthought bizarre team selections and a talented team playing within themselves. It is agonising to watch.

As the OP points out, we have much to be grateful for. This is true. But an ambitious strategically-aware motivational manager is not one of them. He could be. I want him to be. But he currently lacks the self awareness, humility and common sense to make the final step.

Until he does, or someone does, it is painful.

 

[Dreyfuss]

You are 11th.

You likely have the 22nd biggest budget. Above Rotherham and Plymouth.

I’d call that overachieving.

Why are so fixated on our current league position? Why don't you comment on our 16 points from our last 18 games. Relegation form on par with fucking shite teams like Sheff W.

 

[Michael]

You are 11th.

You likely have the 22nd biggest budget. Above Rotherham and Plymouth.

I’d call that overachieving.

I'd call that a very lazy and blinkered argument.

 

[PrestonUltras81]

Revenue, and more pertinently, money spent should give you a general guide on where you should be expecting to finish, though it's clearly not the be all and end all. And expectations are not the same as what's possible.

Question is, what do you think are the expectations given to the manager when he signs a contract to work here? If you think it's 'finish top 6', I think you'll be sorely disappointed.

You see, revenue is importan, of course. What you do with it, even more so. So, take a club like PNEwho pay some bang average League One level players, wages beyond their wildest dreams; then comes along another, slightly 'richer' club who is then willing to pay the same said player even greater riches to.go and play for another 'unsuccessful team' but 'big' 😉 (such as SW or a Stoke City) Whilst all this shifting around of bang average players between the 'also rans' of football is going on, the real 'big boys' with the real big sky parachute money, look around for the 'better' players who demand 'real' recession-beating wages which SKY has facilitated. Most money is squandered. In the big scheme of things, if you think that an extra £10m will help a club like PNE or SW be more competitive in this league you are sadly mistaken - you need a good coach above all. Yes, you need big money to get the players and then you need a good coach. A coach with no idea can make a mess with or without money - ask Stoke fans; AN blamed lack of funds, when here at PNE, but when given the funds at Stoke, the real reason for his 'failures' was there for all to see.

 

[The Splash]

 

[HunterLionheart]

You see, revenue is importan, of course. What you do with it, even more so. So, take a club like PNEwho pay some bang average League One level players, wages beyond their wildest dreams; then comes along another, slightly 'richer' club who is then willing to pay the same said player even greater riches to.go and play for another 'unsuccessful team' but 'big' 😉 (such as SW or a Stoke City) Whilst all this shifting around of bang average players between the 'also rans' of football is going on, the real 'big boys' with the real big sky parachute money, look around for the 'better' players who demand 'real' recession-beating wages which SKY has facilitated. Most money is squandered. In the big scheme of things, if you think that an extra £10m will help a club like PNE or SW be more competitive in this league you are sadly mistaken - you need a good coach above all. Yes, you need big money to get the players and then you need a good coach. A coach with no idea can make a mess with or without money - ask Stoke fans; AN blamed lack of funds, when here at PNE, but when given the funds at Stoke, the real reason for his 'failures' was there for all to see.

More money is more raffle tickets, ultimately. Not a guarantee of anything. But when we have 10 tickets out of 5000, we can't really expect ours to get pulled.

Like signings, for instance, We spend 3 million and think we've had a great window. Other teams spent double that on their bench.

You're absolutely right though, in that we need to spend what little money we have as well as we possibly can, if we're to have any chance of success. One bad window turns us into a relegation scrap.

It would be nice to believe that a good coach will make all the difference, but most of them can't really overachieve at all. The likes of Bielsa are rare at this level, though it looks like Ipswich have unearthed one!

 

[djwoody]

I’m a SWFC fan and as I usually do when we have a match, I take a look at how the opposing fans are feeling about things.

Hopefully, I’m not breaking any rules by posting this thread and it’ll be taken in the spirit it’s intended.

I’ve not felt the desire to open an account on another teams forum for many years, but the opinions I’ve read on here are so far removed from what I expected that I felt compelled.

According to the poll on this forum, nearly 80% of you think Lowe should be sacked - which massively surprised me.

Looking at it from the outside, it seems he is exceeding or at the very least meeting what should be expected.

You’ve got the 18th largest average attendance in the division. You are only averaging a few hundred more than QPR, Plymouth, Millwall and Swansea - all of whom have considerably less away fans through the door than you. Therefore, in terms of home supporter base, you are currently 22nd in the division, only ahead of Blackburn and Rotherham.

Every single one of the six teams with smaller averages is below you in the league table.

You don’t have a rich benefactor, so it is reasonable to assume that the teams above you in the league average attendance all have bigger budgets than you. Especially, since most of those teams are backed by wealthy owners and many have parachute payments.

This is backed up by your latest accounts (for 2022) which show your wage bill to be under £22m, comparatively small in the division. However, when you take into account of player amortisation, you are running at an operating loss of circa £20m. Obviously, for FFP purposes, some of these losses wouldn’t count towards the permitted losses of £39m over three seasons. However, maybe I was wrong when earlier I said you didn’t have a rich benefactor as it appears your owners must be basically losing very close to the permitted FFP amount every year.

The reason you can’t spend more is your modest turnover of £13.8m. For comparable purposes, Sheffield Wednesday had turnover of £16.3m in League One, therefore in The Championship their turnover is likely to be £10m higher than yours with the extra solidarity and TV payments.

Not only are your crowds small for the division, but the ticket prices you pay are also far below average. This can be evidenced by even a club like Luton (in 2022 so the year before they got promoted), had turnover of £17.7m.

Blackburn are one of the two clubs getting lower home support in numbers than you, but their turnover was £16.6m in 2022 - over 20% higher than yours.

I look at the teams immediately above you in the table and then compare their 2022 revenue figures and those of Sunderland, Bristol City, Boro’s and Watfords (due to parachute payments) dwarf yours.

Therefore, I’m struggling to see who is above you that you realistically think you should be above?

I then look at the teams below you. Coventry City had a turnover of £18m in 2022 and spent a fortune this Summer. Norwich have parachute payments, Stoke, Birmingham and Wednesday have far bigger budgets. Therefore, it appears lots of clubs would expect to be above you but aren’t.

Certainly in terms of budgets, Lowe has you punching well above your weight.

Then I’ve seen various comments that other clubs without big budgets have managed to get promotion to the PL. But unless I’m missing one, I don’t think a club with as smaller budget as yours has managed it for very many years!

Luton are perhaps the closest but I showed above that their revenue was still 30% higher than yours in 2022.

Bournemouth and Brentford are definitely historically smaller clubs but they had owners that backed them heavily and at the right time. There’s no way Bournemouth would get away nowadays (under heavier FFP legislation) with the losses they originally incurred to get into the EPL for the first time. Once they were in they then got locked into the parachute payment merry go round.

Brentford’s model allowed them to make huge profits on player sales (something no other club has managed to successfully replicate) but even then their turnover from day to day activities was £15.2m back in 18/19.

Therefore, and I guess in summary, to an outsider like me it appears that you are punching well above your weight.

You don’t get enough fans through the gate to achieve any more. And the fans you do get, don’t pay enough for your tickets. You would buck every trend going, if you managed to get to the PL and you are currently achieving pretty much the ceiling of what can reasonably be expected.

Your owner appears to be chucking in cash to the limit of what is permitted under FFP rules.

I totally accept that this post probably my won’t make me popular. But come on guys, what am I missing? It appears that your budget should probably make you are club that yo-yo’s between League One and The Championship but you are an established Championship club that is never in the conversations about relegation.

At the moment you just look like Charlton fans did whinging about coming mid table in the PL every year.

I can see your point of view as a fan of a club fresh out of L1 and still thinking that you "belong" in the Prem because more people go to watch your team.
However...
We are dull as dishwater to watch more often than not.
We all know that, although money helps, it isn't the only factor - take Blackpool, Wigan, Luton, Burnley, Ipswich as current/recent examples of doing well on less money. We ourselves also know from experience that it's absolutely possible to be regularly challenging for the play offs on lower budgets.
Football is played on the pitch, not in accounts departments.
As you've brought up turnover, it's worth noting that is one of the fans issues with the leadership. We have, as a club, a pretty lazy approach to generating income. We don't run our own club shop, we outsource the catering, and seem to have little vision/drive in the corporate sphere.

If we all just accept that money should dictate league position, there's no point in the games, is there?

 

[djwoody]

You are 11th.

You likely have the 22nd biggest budget. Above Rotherham and Plymouth.

I’d call that overachieving.

Again, only if you want to play football based on accounts. If it was that simple, you could avoid the actual playing of games.

 

[Dick Dastardly]

The great thing about the pyramid system in football is that we’ve all got dreams of getting to the top. When you stop believing then find something else to do. Every season at the first match we all hope it’s going to be our turn to taste success. All clubs will have changed some players and given their fans cause for optimism. Historically, managers and coaches have had more say and influence in club’s successes than fan numbers, fact.