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Outside View

Outside View

shabbagaz said:
All the hallmarks of gallynuge
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We've made the Play Offs about 4 times, and finished 7th a couple of times, and 9th in the past 20 odd years, which includes 4 years that can't count as we were in league one.

As such, as well run club, we are currently very much where we should be, near the play offs, and in fact we're underachieving as we've spent relatively large on players, and a manager, yet he's made zero progress in two years. We usually sell our best assets, not invest, so you'd surely expect to see an improvement.

Any element of consistency and a team will shoot up this league.

The wider picture, yes we probably should appreciate we're not in Derby or Porstmouth's position, but we are used to much better than the dross Lowe is serving up, and we won't be forced to accept mediocrity just cos the club-size paperwork says so. Lowe is a gash manager, completely out of his depth. We've seen the value of a good manager, your Moyes, your Billy Davies, your Simon Grayson so we know what's possible.
 
AssemblyAtWembley said:
I’m a SWFC fan and as I usually do when we have a match, I take a look at how the opposing fans are feeling about things.

Hopefully, I’m not breaking any rules by posting this thread and it’ll be taken in the spirit it’s intended.

I’ve not felt the desire to open an account on another teams forum for many years, but the opinions I’ve read on here are so far removed from what I expected that I felt compelled.

According to the poll on this forum, nearly 80% of you think Lowe should be sacked - which massively surprised me.

Looking at it from the outside, it seems he is exceeding or at the very least meeting what should be expected.

You’ve got the 18th largest average attendance in the division. You are only averaging a few hundred more than QPR, Plymouth, Millwall and Swansea - all of whom have considerably less away fans through the door than you. Therefore, in terms of home supporter base, you are currently 22nd in the division, only ahead of Blackburn and Rotherham.

Every single one of the six teams with smaller averages is below you in the league table.

You don’t have a rich benefactor, so it is reasonable to assume that the teams above you in the league average attendance all have bigger budgets than you. Especially, since most of those teams are backed by wealthy owners and many have parachute payments.

This is backed up by your latest accounts (for 2022) which show your wage bill to be under £22m, comparatively small in the division. However, when you take into account of player amortisation, you are running at an operating loss of circa £20m. Obviously, for FFP purposes, some of these losses wouldn’t count towards the permitted losses of £39m over three seasons. However, maybe I was wrong when earlier I said you didn’t have a rich benefactor as it appears your owners must be basically losing very close to the permitted FFP amount every year.

The reason you can’t spend more is your modest turnover of £13.8m. For comparable purposes, Sheffield Wednesday had turnover of £16.3m in League One, therefore in The Championship their turnover is likely to be £10m higher than yours with the extra solidarity and TV payments.

Not only are your crowds small for the division, but the ticket prices you pay are also far below average. This can be evidenced by even a club like Luton (in 2022 so the year before they got promoted), had turnover of £17.7m.

Blackburn are one of the two clubs getting lower home support in numbers than you, but their turnover was £16.6m in 2022 - over 20% higher than yours.

I look at the teams immediately above you in the table and then compare their 2022 revenue figures and those of Sunderland, Bristol City, Boro’s and Watfords (due to parachute payments) dwarf yours.

Therefore, I’m struggling to see who is above you that you realistically think you should be above?

I then look at the teams below you. Coventry City had a turnover of £18m in 2022 and spent a fortune this Summer. Norwich have parachute payments, Stoke, Birmingham and Wednesday have far bigger budgets. Therefore, it appears lots of clubs would expect to be above you but aren’t.

Certainly in terms of budgets, Lowe has you punching well above your weight.

Then I’ve seen various comments that other clubs without big budgets have managed to get promotion to the PL. But unless I’m missing one, I don’t think a club with as smaller budget as yours has managed it for very many years!

Luton are perhaps the closest but I showed above that their revenue was still 30% higher than yours in 2022.

Bournemouth and Brentford are definitely historically smaller clubs but they had owners that backed them heavily and at the right time. There’s no way Bournemouth would get away nowadays (under heavier FFP legislation) with the losses they originally incurred to get into the EPL for the first time. Once they were in they then got locked into the parachute payment merry go round.

Brentford’s model allowed them to make huge profits on player sales (something no other club has managed to successfully replicate) but even then their turnover from day to day activities was £15.2m back in 18/19.

Therefore, and I guess in summary, to an outsider like me it appears that you are punching well above your weight.

You don’t get enough fans through the gate to achieve any more. And the fans you do get, don’t pay enough for your tickets. You would buck every trend going, if you managed to get to the PL and you are currently achieving pretty much the ceiling of what can reasonably be expected.

Your owner appears to be chucking in cash to the limit of what is permitted under FFP rules.

I totally accept that this post probably my won’t make me popular. But come on guys, what am I missing? It appears that your budget should probably make you are club that yo-yo’s between League One and The Championship but you are an established Championship club that is never in the conversations about relegation.

At the moment you just look like Charlton fans did whinging about coming mid table in the PL every year.
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A very good and balanced post which is factually hard to disagree with.
However I would just like to point out our sufferance levels far outstrip any club of similar standing.
Founder members, double winners and yet we’ve not been anywhere near the top flight for over 60 years.
We’ve seen all sorts of misfits get there including Shitpool, Wigan and Oldham to name a few and the best we’ve done is a league one play off victory against the mighty Swindon.
So you’re right but please consider these mitigating circumstances your honour.
 
So who was @galynuge? Is this the same person? Just interested in what makes these oddballs tick.
I wouldn't have the time or inclination.
 
AssemblyAtWembley said:
I’m a SWFC fan and as I usually do when we have a match, I take a look at how the opposing fans are feeling about things.

Hopefully, I’m not breaking any rules by posting this thread and it’ll be taken in the spirit it’s intended.

I’ve not felt the desire to open an account on another teams forum for many years, but the opinions I’ve read on here are so far removed from what I expected that I felt compelled.

According to the poll on this forum, nearly 80% of you think Lowe should be sacked - which massively surprised me.

Looking at it from the outside, it seems he is exceeding or at the very least meeting what should be expected.

You’ve got the 18th largest average attendance in the division. You are only averaging a few hundred more than QPR, Plymouth, Millwall and Swansea - all of whom have considerably less away fans through the door than you. Therefore, in terms of home supporter base, you are currently 22nd in the division, only ahead of Blackburn and Rotherham.

Every single one of the six teams with smaller averages is below you in the league table.

You don’t have a rich benefactor, so it is reasonable to assume that the teams above you in the league average attendance all have bigger budgets than you. Especially, since most of those teams are backed by wealthy owners and many have parachute payments.

This is backed up by your latest accounts (for 2022) which show your wage bill to be under £22m, comparatively small in the division. However, when you take into account of player amortisation, you are running at an operating loss of circa £20m. Obviously, for FFP purposes, some of these losses wouldn’t count towards the permitted losses of £39m over three seasons. However, maybe I was wrong when earlier I said you didn’t have a rich benefactor as it appears your owners must be basically losing very close to the permitted FFP amount every year.

The reason you can’t spend more is your modest turnover of £13.8m. For comparable purposes, Sheffield Wednesday had turnover of £16.3m in League One, therefore in The Championship their turnover is likely to be £10m higher than yours with the extra solidarity and TV payments.

Not only are your crowds small for the division, but the ticket prices you pay are also far below average. This can be evidenced by even a club like Luton (in 2022 so the year before they got promoted), had turnover of £17.7m.

Blackburn are one of the two clubs getting lower home support in numbers than you, but their turnover was £16.6m in 2022 - over 20% higher than yours.

I look at the teams immediately above you in the table and then compare their 2022 revenue figures and those of Sunderland, Bristol City, Boro’s and Watfords (due to parachute payments) dwarf yours.

Therefore, I’m struggling to see who is above you that you realistically think you should be above?

I then look at the teams below you. Coventry City had a turnover of £18m in 2022 and spent a fortune this Summer. Norwich have parachute payments, Stoke, Birmingham and Wednesday have far bigger budgets. Therefore, it appears lots of clubs would expect to be above you but aren’t.

Certainly in terms of budgets, Lowe has you punching well above your weight.

Then I’ve seen various comments that other clubs without big budgets have managed to get promotion to the PL. But unless I’m missing one, I don’t think a club with as smaller budget as yours has managed it for very many years!

Luton are perhaps the closest but I showed above that their revenue was still 30% higher than yours in 2022.

Bournemouth and Brentford are definitely historically smaller clubs but they had owners that backed them heavily and at the right time. There’s no way Bournemouth would get away nowadays (under heavier FFP legislation) with the losses they originally incurred to get into the EPL for the first time. Once they were in they then got locked into the parachute payment merry go round.

Brentford’s model allowed them to make huge profits on player sales (something no other club has managed to successfully replicate) but even then their turnover from day to day activities was £15.2m back in 18/19.

Therefore, and I guess in summary, to an outsider like me it appears that you are punching well above your weight.

You don’t get enough fans through the gate to achieve any more. And the fans you do get, don’t pay enough for your tickets. You would buck every trend going, if you managed to get to the PL and you are currently achieving pretty much the ceiling of what can reasonably be expected.

Your owner appears to be chucking in cash to the limit of what is permitted under FFP rules.

I totally accept that this post probably my won’t make me popular. But come on guys, what am I missing? It appears that your budget should probably make you are club that yo-yo’s between League One and The Championship but you are an established Championship club that is never in the conversations about relegation.

At the moment you just look like Charlton fans did whinging about coming mid table in the PL every year.
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What are football forums for if they are not for talking football (and a whole load of other bollocks!).

Good post adding a different honest perspective. Some home truths that some don’t want to hear…. and obviously also spectacularly misses other points- which you always knew you would. Certainly sparked a debate!
 
Regardless said:
What are football forums for if they are not for talking football (and a whole load of other bollocks!).

Good post adding a different honest perspective. Some home truths that some don’t want to hear…. and obviously also spectacularly misses other points- which you always knew you would. Certainly sparked a debate!
Click to expand...
Well I did ask what I was missing 😂
 
AssemblyAtWembley said:
I’m a SWFC fan and as I usually do when we have a match, I take a look at how the opposing fans are feeling about things.

Hopefully, I’m not breaking any rules by posting this thread and it’ll be taken in the spirit it’s intended.

I’ve not felt the desire to open an account on another teams forum for many years, but the opinions I’ve read on here are so far removed from what I expected that I felt compelled.

According to the poll on this forum, nearly 80% of you think Lowe should be sacked - which massively surprised me.

Looking at it from the outside, it seems he is exceeding or at the very least meeting what should be expected.

You’ve got the 18th largest average attendance in the division. You are only averaging a few hundred more than QPR, Plymouth, Millwall and Swansea - all of whom have considerably less away fans through the door than you. Therefore, in terms of home supporter base, you are currently 22nd in the division, only ahead of Blackburn and Rotherham.

Every single one of the six teams with smaller averages is below you in the league table.

You don’t have a rich benefactor, so it is reasonable to assume that the teams above you in the league average attendance all have bigger budgets than you. Especially, since most of those teams are backed by wealthy owners and many have parachute payments.

This is backed up by your latest accounts (for 2022) which show your wage bill to be under £22m, comparatively small in the division. However, when you take into account of player amortisation, you are running at an operating loss of circa £20m. Obviously, for FFP purposes, some of these losses wouldn’t count towards the permitted losses of £39m over three seasons. However, maybe I was wrong when earlier I said you didn’t have a rich benefactor as it appears your owners must be basically losing very close to the permitted FFP amount every year.

The reason you can’t spend more is your modest turnover of £13.8m. For comparable purposes, Sheffield Wednesday had turnover of £16.3m in League One, therefore in The Championship their turnover is likely to be £10m higher than yours with the extra solidarity and TV payments.

Not only are your crowds small for the division, but the ticket prices you pay are also far below average. This can be evidenced by even a club like Luton (in 2022 so the year before they got promoted), had turnover of £17.7m.

Blackburn are one of the two clubs getting lower home support in numbers than you, but their turnover was £16.6m in 2022 - over 20% higher than yours.

I look at the teams immediately above you in the table and then compare their 2022 revenue figures and those of Sunderland, Bristol City, Boro’s and Watfords (due to parachute payments) dwarf yours.

Therefore, I’m struggling to see who is above you that you realistically think you should be above?

I then look at the teams below you. Coventry City had a turnover of £18m in 2022 and spent a fortune this Summer. Norwich have parachute payments, Stoke, Birmingham and Wednesday have far bigger budgets. Therefore, it appears lots of clubs would expect to be above you but aren’t.

Certainly in terms of budgets, Lowe has you punching well above your weight.

Then I’ve seen various comments that other clubs without big budgets have managed to get promotion to the PL. But unless I’m missing one, I don’t think a club with as smaller budget as yours has managed it for very many years!

Luton are perhaps the closest but I showed above that their revenue was still 30% higher than yours in 2022.

Bournemouth and Brentford are definitely historically smaller clubs but they had owners that backed them heavily and at the right time. There’s no way Bournemouth would get away nowadays (under heavier FFP legislation) with the losses they originally incurred to get into the EPL for the first time. Once they were in they then got locked into the parachute payment merry go round.

Brentford’s model allowed them to make huge profits on player sales (something no other club has managed to successfully replicate) but even then their turnover from day to day activities was £15.2m back in 18/19.

Therefore, and I guess in summary, to an outsider like me it appears that you are punching well above your weight.

You don’t get enough fans through the gate to achieve any more. And the fans you do get, don’t pay enough for your tickets. You would buck every trend going, if you managed to get to the PL and you are currently achieving pretty much the ceiling of what can reasonably be expected.

Your owner appears to be chucking in cash to the limit of what is permitted under FFP rules.

I totally accept that this post probably my won’t make me popular. But come on guys, what am I missing? It appears that your budget should probably make you are club that yo-yo’s between League One and The Championship but you are an established Championship club that is never in the conversations about relegation.

At the moment you just look like Charlton fans did whinging about coming mid table in the PL every year.
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To be fair to you, you've put some effort in and done your research. I find when someone goes to that lengths to state their case rather than just go "you're a small club so stop whinging lol" - even if the final message reads similar - it's often a genuine attempt to put a viewpoint across, to start a discussion rather than cause offence or patronise.

I think as a fanbase we have developed a bitterness towards the phrase "punching above our weight" over the course of a decade of having it shoved down our throats by Ridsdale at the slightest sign of any (often valid) criticism. Financially, this is correct - but football has never been played on balance sheets.

To answer your question "what am I missing?" - I would suggest you are missing the footballing side of it altogether, considering that you haven't once mentioned what Lowe is actually saying/doing, the players he has at his disposal and the performances on matchdays.

I posted a not-so-brief summary of our statistical performance a few weeks or so ago. I found that for virtually all metrics - possession, pass completion, chance creation, xG - we sit in the bottom 3. Everything except defensive numbers - clearances, tackles, interceptions, etc. - and long-range passes, for which we sit in the top 6 at least.

Collectively, PNE fans sussed out very quickly that the winning run that saw us towards the top of the table early was a series of very fortunate results, which came about due to extremely dogged defensive and negative performances. We ran extremely hot in front of goal and kept things quite tight at the other end - the recent form is more or less our "level" under this manager.

Speaking of whom, he's a snake oil salesman unfortunately. He promised a "brand", introduced the idea of having an identity and an attractive way of playing. "Attack with 6, defend with 4". Plenty such as myself who were eager to buy in, back him and believed in what he said we wanted to do. Yet until very recently, he has been completely ignorant to the type of football we've been playing and had continued to claim that we are playing in line with his "brand". It's only now that he's come clean and all-but confirmed it's "win at all costs".

Frustratingly, I think we all reckon he has the players to do play how he said he would. Liam Millar is absolute class. Alan Browne, Ben Whiteman and Mads Frokjaer are all good technical players for this level. Freddie Woodman is the best permanent keeper we've had since Carlo Nash. Emil Riis has had a 20 goal season at this level and Milutin Osmajic looks like he could do similar with time. Yet we aren't even playing Mads Frokjaer because he doesn't have the energy of someone like Ryan Ledson. It's like your manager deciding to drop Barry Bannan because he's not defensive enough.

"We should be careful what we wish for" - we know. We've gone from Phil Brown and Graham Westley, to Simon Grayson and Alex Neil, and back to Frankie McAvoy and Ryan Lowe.
 
Regardless said:
What are football forums for if they are not for talking football (and a whole load of other bollocks!).

Good post adding a different honest perspective. Some home truths that some don’t want to hear…. and obviously also spectacularly misses other points- which you always knew you would. Certainly sparked a debate!
Click to expand...
Name me a football fan who wants to hear the bleeding obvious😁. What we are saying in the face of the bleeding obvious, is that surely we have to believe that we might be able to compete for the top 6? Dream? Of course it is. Watch dross because we have no money? Who wants that?
 
AssemblyAtWembley said:
I’m a SWFC fan and as I usually do when we have a match, I take a look at how the opposing fans are feeling about things.

Hopefully, I’m not breaking any rules by posting this thread and it’ll be taken in the spirit it’s intended.

I’ve not felt the desire to open an account on another teams forum for many years, but the opinions I’ve read on here are so far removed from what I expected that I felt compelled.

According to the poll on this forum, nearly 80% of you think Lowe should be sacked - which massively surprised me.

Looking at it from the outside, it seems he is exceeding or at the very least meeting what should be expected.

You’ve got the 18th largest average attendance in the division. You are only averaging a few hundred more than QPR, Plymouth, Millwall and Swansea - all of whom have considerably less away fans through the door than you. Therefore, in terms of home supporter base, you are currently 22nd in the division, only ahead of Blackburn and Rotherham.

Every single one of the six teams with smaller averages is below you in the league table.

You don’t have a rich benefactor, so it is reasonable to assume that the teams above you in the league average attendance all have bigger budgets than you. Especially, since most of those teams are backed by wealthy owners and many have parachute payments.

This is backed up by your latest accounts (for 2022) which show your wage bill to be under £22m, comparatively small in the division. However, when you take into account of player amortisation, you are running at an operating loss of circa £20m. Obviously, for FFP purposes, some of these losses wouldn’t count towards the permitted losses of £39m over three seasons. However, maybe I was wrong when earlier I said you didn’t have a rich benefactor as it appears your owners must be basically losing very close to the permitted FFP amount every year.

The reason you can’t spend more is your modest turnover of £13.8m. For comparable purposes, Sheffield Wednesday had turnover of £16.3m in League One, therefore in The Championship their turnover is likely to be £10m higher than yours with the extra solidarity and TV payments.

Not only are your crowds small for the division, but the ticket prices you pay are also far below average. This can be evidenced by even a club like Luton (in 2022 so the year before they got promoted), had turnover of £17.7m.

Blackburn are one of the two clubs getting lower home support in numbers than you, but their turnover was £16.6m in 2022 - over 20% higher than yours.

I look at the teams immediately above you in the table and then compare their 2022 revenue figures and those of Sunderland, Bristol City, Boro’s and Watfords (due to parachute payments) dwarf yours.

Therefore, I’m struggling to see who is above you that you realistically think you should be above?

I then look at the teams below you. Coventry City had a turnover of £18m in 2022 and spent a fortune this Summer. Norwich have parachute payments, Stoke, Birmingham and Wednesday have far bigger budgets. Therefore, it appears lots of clubs would expect to be above you but aren’t.

Certainly in terms of budgets, Lowe has you punching well above your weight.

Then I’ve seen various comments that other clubs without big budgets have managed to get promotion to the PL. But unless I’m missing one, I don’t think a club with as smaller budget as yours has managed it for very many years!

Luton are perhaps the closest but I showed above that their revenue was still 30% higher than yours in 2022.

Bournemouth and Brentford are definitely historically smaller clubs but they had owners that backed them heavily and at the right time. There’s no way Bournemouth would get away nowadays (under heavier FFP legislation) with the losses they originally incurred to get into the EPL for the first time. Once they were in they then got locked into the parachute payment merry go round.

Brentford’s model allowed them to make huge profits on player sales (something no other club has managed to successfully replicate) but even then their turnover from day to day activities was £15.2m back in 18/19.

Therefore, and I guess in summary, to an outsider like me it appears that you are punching well above your weight.

You don’t get enough fans through the gate to achieve any more. And the fans you do get, don’t pay enough for your tickets. You would buck every trend going, if you managed to get to the PL and you are currently achieving pretty much the ceiling of what can reasonably be expected.

Your owner appears to be chucking in cash to the limit of what is permitted under FFP rules.

I totally accept that this post probably my won’t make me popular. But come on guys, what am I missing? It appears that your budget should probably make you are club that yo-yo’s between League One and The Championship but you are an established Championship club that is never in the conversations about relegation.

At the moment you just look like Charlton fans did whinging about coming mid table in the PL every year.
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great post and lots of business sense talked, something which many dont seem to understand. I stated in an other post that we would need to increase ticket prices by £20 per game for every single attendee and maintain 14000 just to break even.
However, myself and I suspect many on here are sick of watching the boring, unexciting, turgid brand of football on display whislt witnessing tactics and substitutions that are akin to a sunday league manager.
We pay to be entertained and quite frankly Lowe has taken the enjoyment out of watching football - I would rather we get stuffed and at least see some shots on target and attacking nous, afterall thats what fans want to see.
Yes, I agree for us to get promoted would be a massive over achievment but all we want is to enjoy watching Preston again. It was more fun in the lower leagues but maybe that is a sign of what the ludicrous sums of money in the premiership have caused for teams below.
Until player wages come in line with club revenues the game is doomed.
 
AssemblyAtWembley said:
But a billionaire can only do so much with the garbage FFP guidelines.

All he can basically do is improve your infrastructure and Chuck in £39m every three year cycle in top - which he appears to be doing.

To get to the EPL, you either need to overcome a financial Mismatch probably not seen since Blackpool got promoted or increase revenue.

The only logical way to increase revenue would seem to be increased gate receipts.

So are you willing to pay these prices?

Matchday ticket prices - Sheffield Wednesday

SWFC Matchday ticket prices for 2017/18 Sky Bet Championship season
www.swfc.co.uk www.swfc.co.uk
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Or get a half decent manager
 
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