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Is Lowe evolving?

Is Lowe evolving?

prestonmadhouse said:
I don’t follow stats and xG goes straight over my head but I do look at goal difference.
Since we came back up to the championship, bar two seasons with AN, our GD has been 0 or minus.
Generally, the worse your GD is, the lower in the table you finish.
At present, our GD is saying mid table again.
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Of course that is generally true. One weird year Huddersfield got promoted with a minus goal difference.
Once remember the Lashers getting relegated with a goal difference of minus 1 which would have been in about 1978
 
prestonmadhouse said:
What, instead of a delayed, end of season, golfing holiday?

That would be a great idea Bob
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Ron Burgundy said:
This sort of concept would have the white vans showing up to take you away if you mentioned it at Euxton.
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It would mean having to sign the required senior players in the Summer though, instead of having to wait for our ONLY AVAILABLE STRIKER TO FINISH SCHOOL!!!

I probably should have mentioned it at the time...
 
SF said:
Wow. Sounds like Burgundy has had his first taste after slipping his pickle in a Dingle, and now he's got a bit of a chip on his shoulder.

No need to get so stressed, it's only a forum.

For such an self-proclaimed intelligent guy, you still can't make coherent sentences.
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Ye I'm the one stressed when you resorted to insults and crying over someone not agreeing with you.

Again like a narcissist.

But you keep replying to me pal to have the last word, it's funny making you dance to a tune.

I'll leave you now, it's turning into bullying the local dunce, sure you have a collection of those hats whilst still living at home with Mummy.
 
I don't really follow xG, does the "expected goal" number change depending on who the chance falls to?

For example if the ball drops to Jordan Storey on his left foot 12yrds out does that chance still have the same value as it would dropping to Cameron Archer?
 
Ron Burgundy said:
What's your take on it?

If we had the 3 pens would it skew the metrics in favour of Lowe when they shouldn't be or should it be and Lowe's xG is skewed against him because of poor officiating.
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Dont think it makes too much difference unless you’re looking at it in isolation which is daft.

Only use xG to make sure I’m not being over critical about our football. I can see watching us that we don’t create enough chances from open play, the xG per game just backs that up
 
Bobbage said:
I don't really follow xG, does the "expected goal" number change depending on who the chance falls to?

For example if the ball drops to Jordan Storey on his left foot 12yrds out does that chance still have the same value as it would dropping to Cameron Archer?
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No, it's the same xG based on where the shot is taken from, which will average out based on every player who has ever taken a (recorded) shot from that range, to put it simply.

So in theory, you should expect a good finisher to outperform the xG of their chances, and a poor one to underperform it.

It's a model better used over larger time periods really.
 
Bobbage said:
I don't really follow xG, does the "expected goal" number change depending on who the chance falls to?

For example if the ball drops to Jordan Storey on his left foot 12yrds out does that chance still have the same value as it would dropping to Cameron Archer?
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Think Hunter says it above but if both players are taking the same shot from the same distance and it goes to the same place then the Xg is the same. The difference should be that Storey taking a shot "should" have a lower Xg and that Archer "should" take a shot with a higher Xg i.e. the comparative skill level for that position should mean the striker chooses the shot with more chance of scoring (if Storey chose the same shot as Archer then the Xg would be the same again for the better shot)
 
HunterLionheart said:
No, it's the same xG based on where the shot is taken from, which will average out based on every player who has ever taken a (recorded) shot from that range, to put it simply.

So in theory, you should expect a good finisher to outperform the xG of their chances, and a poor one to underperform it.

It's a model better used over larger time periods really.
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jakehake said:
Think Hunter says it above but if both players are taking the same shot from the same distance and it goes to the same place then the Xg is the same. The difference should be that Storey taking a shot "should" have a lower Xg and that Archer "should" take a shot with a higher Xg i.e. the comparative skill level for that position should mean the striker chooses the shot with more chance of scoring (if Storey chose the same shot as Archer then the Xg would be the same again for the better shot)
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So if we've been picking better passes and creating better (albeit fewer) chances for our forwards, rather than having more chances created at set plays falling to defenders then us having a lower xG than the opposition is a bit of a nonsense without knowing precisely who had which shots?
 
Bobbage said:
So if we've been picking better passes and creating better (albeit fewer) chances for our forwards, rather than having more chances created at set plays falling to defenders then us having a lower xG than the opposition is a bit of a nonsense without knowing precisely who had which shots?
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Think the point is more that the overall numbers suggest we've created bugger all of either.

We dont create clear cut chances for anyone, that's what the numbers illustrate. It's all scrappy half chances, which added together look like we might scab a goal a game off Keane's arse, or Osmajic blasting a low percentage shot in.
 
Libertine said:
Am I right in saying that the xG is based purely on the position on the pitch that the shot is taken from?
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It’s a metric to determine the likelihood a shot could’ve resulted in a goal.

The difficulty of the shot, the position of defenders and position of the attacker are all factors
 
HunterLionheart said:
Think the point is more that the overall numbers suggest we've created bugger all of either.

We dont create clear cut chances for anyone, that's what the numbers illustrate. It's all scrappy half chances, which added together look like we might scab a goal a game off Keane's arse, or Osmajic blasting a low percentage shot in.
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So the easiest way to increase our xG and create more chances is to go route one Frankieball and have Riis back on the long throws?

Pump the ball in to the box and see who it drops to. The fans will love that!
 
Baffles me why people get tetchy about XG, if it was useless then top professional football clubs wouldn't analyse it.

Personally, I never look into it. But, over the course of the season, if you go through the leagues, I bet it's a pretty close reflection of the final standings, bar a few exceptions when teams have really shit strikers.
 
SF said:
But, over the course of the season, if you go through the leagues, I bet it's a pretty close reflection of the final standings, bar a few exceptions when teams have really shit strikers.
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Ask and you shall receive. I've not checked your theory by the way. Big job has just broken out here. It's brew time.

footystats.org

Championship xG (Expected Goals) - England | FootyStats

Expected Goals data for the England Championship - including xG, xG Against (Conceded), and xG at home and away. Stats use advanced xG modelling for the Championship.
footystats.org footystats.org
 
Libertine said:
Ask and you shall receive. I've not checked your theory by the way. Big job has just broken out here. It's brew time.

footystats.org

Championship xG (Expected Goals) - England | FootyStats

Expected Goals data for the England Championship - including xG, xG Against (Conceded), and xG at home and away. Stats use advanced xG modelling for the Championship.
footystats.org footystats.org
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Cheers, i'll check that out in a bit, should be interesting.

A quick glance at last season's Championship and it seems pretty close to me, especially the top 2 and mid-table.

Shows Coventry and Luton over-performed, as everyone said in general.
 
Bobbage said:
So the easiest way to increase our xG and create more chances is to go route one Frankieball and have Riis back on the long throws?

Pump the ball in to the box and see who it drops to. The fans will love that!
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Only if that actually creates chances. If we played direct and had more shots, people would be happier!
 
SF said:
Baffles me why people get tetchy about XG, if it was useless then top professional football clubs wouldn't analyse it.

Personally, I never look into it. But, over the course of the season, if you go through the leagues, I bet it's a pretty close reflection of the final standings, bar a few exceptions when teams have really shit strikers.
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The current Top 4 in the xG table for the Championship are the current Top 4 in the League Table.

Similarly, at the bottom, Wednesday and Rotherham are bottom 2, which is where they basically are in the League.

The midtable clubs are hovering around midtable in the xG table too.

People may not believe it means much (I'm not sure why), but us being in the bottom 3 is a real concern for me. Doesn't surprise me though.
 
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