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Statistics and the new season

Statistics and the new season

Algarve White

Algarve White

Loves a spreadsheet
Joined
May 25, 2007
Messages
605
Location
Lagos, Portugal
Ok so the fixtures are out, lets look at where we should/could be month by month.
Firstly lets look at automatic promotion. The average since 92/3 for 2nd place is 87.67 points (1.906 points per game); the highest ever is 100 points (2.174 ppg). working mainly on the theory that winning at home and drawing away gets you 92 points this is a working target. Secondly, the next target is 6th. The average (again since 92/3) is 73.55 points (1.6 ppg) The highest is 80 points (1.74 ppg) working on the same theory three quarters of the points should be at home. There is rounding going on before the Aug/Sep thing is pointed out!
Aug 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (Running total 6-8)
Sep 2xH 2xA target 7-8 points (13-16)
Oct 3xH 1xA target 8-10 points (21-26)
Nov 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (29-36)
Dec 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (39-48)
Jan 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (49-60)
Feb 3xH 2xA target 9-11 points (58-71)
Mar 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (64-79)
Apr 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (72-89)
May 1xH target 2-3 points (74-92)

All that having been said 61 or 62 points and 11th would be normal.
 
Algarve White said:
Ok so the fixtures are out, lets look at where we should/could be month by month.
Firstly lets look at automatic promotion. The average since 92/3 for 2nd place is 87.67 points (1.906 points per game); the highest ever is 100 points (2.174 ppg). working mainly on the theory that winning at home and drawing away gets you 92 points this is a working target. Secondly, the next target is 6th. The average (again since 92/3) is 73.55 points (1.6 ppg) The highest is 80 points (1.74 ppg) working on the same theory three quarters of the points should be at home. There is rounding going on before the Aug/Sep thing is pointed out!
Aug 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (Running total 6-8)
Sep 2xH 2xA target 7-8 points (13-16)
Oct 3xH 1xA target 8-10 points (21-26)
Nov 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (29-36)
Dec 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (39-48)
Jan 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (49-60)
Feb 3xH 2xA target 9-11 points (58-71)
Mar 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (64-79)
Apr 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (72-89)
May 1xH target 2-3 points (74-92)

All that having been said 61 or 62 points and 11th would be normal.
Click to expand...
Thank you that's a very interesting post
 
Algarve White said:
Ok so the fixtures are out, lets look at where we should/could be month by month.
Firstly lets look at automatic promotion. The average since 92/3 for 2nd place is 87.67 points (1.906 points per game); the highest ever is 100 points (2.174 ppg). working mainly on the theory that winning at home and drawing away gets you 92 points this is a working target. Secondly, the next target is 6th. The average (again since 92/3) is 73.55 points (1.6 ppg) The highest is 80 points (1.74 ppg) working on the same theory three quarters of the points should be at home. There is rounding going on before the Aug/Sep thing is pointed out!
Aug 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (Running total 6-8)
Sep 2xH 2xA target 7-8 points (13-16)
Oct 3xH 1xA target 8-10 points (21-26)
Nov 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (29-36)
Dec 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (39-48)
Jan 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (49-60)
Feb 3xH 2xA target 9-11 points (58-71)
Mar 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (64-79)
Apr 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (72-89)
May 1xH target 2-3 points (74-92)

All that having been said 61 or 62 points and 11th would be normal.
Click to expand...
Well, we finished September with 13 points, so on target for a 6th place finish. We are a little under 4 points below the 1st place line and a little over 2 points below the 2nd place line. Middlesbrough are 1 point above the first place line and Coventry a little shy of 1 point above the second place line. 5 other teams are above the 6th place line, us, Stoke, WBA, Bristol City and Leicester. At the other end Sheff U are nearly 6 points below the relegation line, Sheff Wed and Oxford nearly 3 points below it, Derby nearly 2 points , Plastics just over 1 point (game in hand) and Derby just under 1 point below.
 

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  • season.jpg
    season.jpg
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If we can beat Charlton, 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeat going into the next international break would be pretty unreal considering what an embarrassment this team was in the last 13 games of last season.

It's very early though and things change quickly. A defeat tomorrow and we're probably about 12th with 1 win in 6.

15 games is probably when things become clearer.
 
SF said:
If we can beat Charlton, 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeat going into the next international break would be pretty unreal considering what an embarrassment this team was in the last 13 games of last season.

It's very early though and things change quickly. A defeat tomorrow and we're probably about 12th with 1 win in 6.

15 games is probably when things become clearer.
Click to expand...
If we can win the next 3 home games Charlton, Birmingham and Sheff U, anything away at WBA is a bonus. We really need to convert some of the draws to wins. As much as the football is way better Hecky has a win % of 25% and a draw % of 46.2%. 3 wins this month would push his win% over 29%.
 
Algarve White said:
Ok so the fixtures are out, lets look at where we should/could be month by month.
Firstly lets look at automatic promotion. The average since 92/3 for 2nd place is 87.67 points (1.906 points per game); the highest ever is 100 points (2.174 ppg). working mainly on the theory that winning at home and drawing away gets you 92 points this is a working target. Secondly, the next target is 6th. The average (again since 92/3) is 73.55 points (1.6 ppg) The highest is 80 points (1.74 ppg) working on the same theory three quarters of the points should be at home. There is rounding going on before the Aug/Sep thing is pointed out!
Aug 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (Running total 6-8)
Sep 2xH 2xA target 7-8 points (13-16)
Oct 3xH 1xA target 8-10 points (21-26)
Nov 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (29-36)
Dec 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (39-48)
Jan 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (49-60)
Feb 3xH 2xA target 9-11 points (58-71)
Mar 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (64-79)
Apr 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (72-89)
May 1xH target 2-3 points (74-92)

All that having been said 61 or 62 points and 11th would be normal.
Click to expand...
Do you remember our statto Albertan?

He has't posted for nearly 10 years so there's a job going spare if you fancy it? 😉
 
Algarve White said:
Ok so the fixtures are out, lets look at where we should/could be month by month.
Firstly lets look at automatic promotion. The average since 92/3 for 2nd place is 87.67 points (1.906 points per game); the highest ever is 100 points (2.174 ppg). working mainly on the theory that winning at home and drawing away gets you 92 points this is a working target. Secondly, the next target is 6th. The average (again since 92/3) is 73.55 points (1.6 ppg) The highest is 80 points (1.74 ppg) working on the same theory three quarters of the points should be at home. There is rounding going on before the Aug/Sep thing is pointed out!
Aug 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (Running total 6-8)
Sep 2xH 2xA target 7-8 points (13-16)
Oct 3xH 1xA target 8-10 points (21-26)
Nov 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (29-36)
Dec 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (39-48)
Jan 3xH 3xA target 10-12 points (49-60)
Feb 3xH 2xA target 9-11 points (58-71)
Mar 2xH 2xA target 6-8 points (64-79)
Apr 2xH 4xA target 8-10 points (72-89)
May 1xH target 2-3 points (74-92)

All that having been said 61 or 62 points and 11th would be normal.
Click to expand...
Another month gone.This time we fell short of our target. We are around 7-8 points short of where we should be to be winning the league, just shy of 6 points from the second place average, and just under 2 points from where we needed to be for play offs. (These figures weighted for the fact we have played 2 more home games than away)
Next month both home games should be winable and 6 points from the 4 away games should be achieveable, that would put us back on track to finish higher than 7th



season.jpg
 
Algarve White said:
Another month gone.This time we fell short of our target. We are around 7-8 points short of where we should be to be winning the league, just shy of 6 points from the second place average, and just under 2 points from where we needed to be for play offs. (These figures weighted for the fact we have played 2 more home games than away)
Next month both home games should be winable and 6 points from the 4 away games should be achieveable, that would put us back on track to finish higher than 7th



View attachment 30819
Click to expand...
for comparison can you plot Sheff Wednesday on your chart.
 
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